Eye On Arizona

Top Ten Projected Riskiest U.S. Housing Markets

April 1, 2009

By: Ann Belfield

It’s a no brainer that the recession is heaving chaos into the housing market, so it should come to no surprise that the First Quarter 2009 Economic and Real Estate Trends Report and its widely cited U.S. Market Risk Index(SM) released today, by the PMI Mortgage Insurance Company has gloomy projections. The PMI Report projects that 98% of the 381 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are facing an increased risk of lower home prices by the end of 2010.

PMI’s U.S. Market Risk Index projects the market risk of home price declines over a two year period in the 50 largest MSAs. The index uses economic, housing, and mortgage market factors to assess the probability of home prices in the 50 largest MSAs. Home price appreciation, employment, affordability, excess housing supply, interest rates and foreclosure activity are variables used in factoring the market risk.

According to the U.S. Market Risk Index, the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA ranked 10^th, and it stands a 98.8% likelihood that the area will face lower home prices by the end of 2010. The list displayed below presents the Top Ten Riskiest of the 50 Largest MSAs. Based on PMI’s Risk Index, these MSA’s have a high degree of risk, from 98.8% in Phoenix MSA to 99.9% in Miami MSA, that the home prices will decline.

Although these factors seem to dispel gloom and doom in these high Risk MSA Areas, these factors have lead to greater home affordability. While it may be a buyer’s market, some areas, like Phoenix, experience competitive bidding for many bargain priced homes.

Source:  PMI Mortgage Insurance Company. First Quarter 2009 Economic and Real Estate Trends Report 01 April 2009.

Tags: Lower Home Prices, Phoenix Housing, Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA, Top Ten
Posted in: AZ Headlines, AZ Housing Market